|
Feb 18, 2026
|
|
AVOID
|
"Magnificent tech stocks... have been struggling a bit recently... investors are already starting to move their chips around and are taking some of it away from the Mag 7 names." Combined with the historical fact that the "second half of February... has traditionally been pretty bad for the S&P," the setup favors a tactical pullback or rotation out of crowded mega-cap tech trades. SHORT or AVOID MAG-7 during the weak seasonal window of late February. A surprise blowout earnings report from NVIDIA (mentioned as the next catalyst) could reverse the rotation immediately. |
Bloomberg Markets
US-Iran Talks 'Progress' & Lagarde Reported t...
|
|
Feb 17, 2026
|
|
WATCH
|
These three companies are the dominant AI hardware players in Asia, trading at "multi-year highs" with "very stretched valuations," having absorbed tremendous capital flows. Asian markets are currently closed for Lunar New Year. Liquidity mismatch risk. If US tech/AI equities slip while Asian markets are closed, investors cannot adjust positions. When Asian markets reopen, there is a high risk of a "rush for the exit" to unwind these crowded, high-valuation trades, especially since they lack the defensive bid of US hardware players during the holiday. WATCH for a pullback upon market reopen; potential SHORT if US tech weakness persists this week. US Tech rebounds strongly before Asian markets reopen, validating the high valuations. |
Bloomberg Markets
US-Iran Nuclear Talks in Geneva; Trump Will B...
|
|
Feb 17, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
JGB yields have rallied (yields down) for a week. Political risk from PM Takaichi has faded as she moves to a "middle of the road" approach, and fiscal expansion fears are receding. The market had priced in a "fiscal reckless" risk premium. As the leadership stabilizes and signals fiscal prudence, that risk premium unwinds, strengthening the Yen and lowering yields. LONG JPY as the fiscal stability narrative combines with the safe-haven geopolitical bid. Unexpected hawkish shift from the BOJ or renewed fiscal spending announcements. |
Bloomberg Markets
US-Iran Nuclear Talks in Geneva; Trump Will B...
|
|
Feb 16, 2026
|
|
AVOID
|
These companies were added to a Pentagon list of firms working with the Chinese military, then the list was withdrawn/redrawn, creating confusion. While being on the list doesn't immediately sanction them, it "makes it difficult for US businesses to do business with their Chinese counterparts" and lays the groundwork for future, more serious sanctions. AVOID due to heightened geopolitical risk and regulatory uncertainty ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting in April. The list could be permanently scrapped, removing the overhang. |
Bloomberg Markets
Rubio Warns Europe & Warner Bros. Mulls New P...
|
|
Feb 16, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
US CPI was benign, and markets are pricing in three rate cuts for 2026 (up from two). Investors are ignoring hot data and focusing on data that supports cuts. If the upcoming PCE data confirms the inflation downtrend, "bonds will have another very good week." LONG Bonds/Treasuries anticipating the PCE print confirms the dovish Fed path. PCE comes in hotter than expected (above 3%), derailing the rate cut narrative. |
Bloomberg Markets
Rubio Warns Europe & Warner Bros. Mulls New P...
|
|
Feb 16, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
Japan's GDP came in much weaker than expected following a contraction in the previous quarter. Weak economic data forces Prime Minister Takaichi to embark on "fiscal expansion" (spending). This reinforces the "Takaichi Trade": printing money/spending stimulates stocks (Nikkei) but devalues the currency (Yen) and hurts bonds. Continue the short JPY / long Equity trade as fiscal stimulus becomes necessary. The Bank of Japan might still hike interest rates despite weak growth, which would strengthen the Yen. |
Bloomberg Markets
Rubio Warns Europe & Warner Bros. Mulls New P...
|
|
Feb 16, 2026
|
|
WATCH
|
Hyperscalers are issuing record amounts of debt to fund the "biggest year of spending" for AI. Hedge funds are buying Credit Default Swaps (CDS) to hedge this exposure. If AI revenue figures ("the income generated from all these huge investments") do not materialize, credit spreads will widen, creating a "downward spiral" that feeds back into equities. WATCH credit spreads on Big Tech. If CDS costs rise, it is a leading indicator for an equity correction. AI revenue could surprise to the upside, rendering the hedges useless. |
Bloomberg Markets
Rubio Warns Europe & Warner Bros. Mulls New P...
|
|
Feb 16, 2026
|
|
NEUTRAL/WATCH
|
Japan's GDP missed expectations massively (0.2% vs 1.6%), yet the Yen has rallied from 159 to 153 against the Dollar. The weak economy makes it harder for the BOJ to hike rates aggressively (bad for banks), but structural factors (fiscal discipline, inflation entrenchment) are preventing the Yen from collapsing. The currency is stabilizing despite the weak data. NEUTRAL. The "easy short" on the Yen is over, but the "long" trade is complicated by a stalling economy. The Fed cutting rates faster than expected would send the Yen ripping higher regardless of Japanese data. |
Bloomberg Markets
Laopu Gold, CATL Added to Hang Seng Index | T...
|
|
Feb 13, 2026
|
|
SHORT
|
"Gradually, we moved into a situation where anything with AI software seemed to be at risk... sticking to the AI hardware makers, the big guys like Taiwan Semiconductor, Samsung." Cranfield notes "Logistics" is the latest sector to sell off due to fears AI will "dismantle some of the workforce." The market is bifurcating the AI theme. It is no longer a rising tide lifting all boats. The trade is now a pair: Long the "Pick and Shovel" hardware providers (TSM, SAMSUNG, AMAT - the latter mentioned in headlines as surging) while Shorting the "Disrupted" sectors where AI replaces labor or reduces pricing power (Logistics like UPS/FDX and generic AI SOFTWARE). LONG Hardware / SHORT Disrupted Sectors (Logistics/Software). A broader tech selloff drags down hardware despite the structural demand; AI disruption fears in logistics prove overblown in the short term. |
Bloomberg Markets
AI Fear Drives Rout & Goldman Lawyer Quits Ov...
|
|
Feb 12, 2026
|
|
LONG
|
The Yen is strengthening (153 per dollar) despite strong US data, showing "underlying desire to sell the US Dollar" and demand for Yen regardless of macro prints. The market is structurally rotating into the Yen, likely due to the "Renaissance" in the Japanese economy and a flight to safety ahead of US political volatility (tariffs/midterms). Long JPY as a hedge against US dollar volatility. Bank of Japan failing to normalize rates further. |
Bloomberg Markets
Trump Rebuked Over Canada Tariffs as Midterm ...
|
|
Feb 12, 2026
|
|
SHORT
|
A surprisingly strong US jobs report caused yields to surge as traders moved Fed cut expectations from June to July. The bond market is trapped in volatility. The data is contradictory (weak private jobs vs. strong payrolls), but the "higher for longer" narrative is gaining traction again. Traders are being forced to become "day traders," making holding duration dangerous. Short/Underweight duration until data trends clarify. A sudden weak CPI print could reverse yields rapidly. |
Bloomberg Markets
Trump Rebuked Over Canada Tariffs as Midterm ...
|